Striking Project Management
Project Management Consulting
Accurate project estimation is one of the most challenging aspects of a project. Project estimation becomes increasingly difficult as the project’s complexity and uncertainty increases. However, project estimates can be accurate.
The powerful project estimation techniques that are explained in this article will quickly improve the accuracy of project estimates, even if you have no project estimation experience.
Before you begin project estimation, there needs to be an understanding of the scope of the project. If you don’t know what the project is trying to achieve, then there is little chance of being able to accurate estimate the effort required.
The more detailed the scope of the project, the more detailed and accurate the project estimate will be. The size, complexity and stage of the project will impact greatly on the level of accuracy required, the amount of cost and time the business can commit to project estimation and the level of understanding and clarity of the scope of the project.
It is therefore important to align the project estimation requirements to the required accuracy and stage of the project.
When estimating a project it is important to understand what stage the project is in as this will determine the level of project estimation accuracy required. For example, if the project is in the initiation stage, the project estimate may have an accuracy of ±50%.
This means that if the project estimate is $2,000,000 with an estimating accuracy of ±50%, the business needs to allow for $1,000,000 at the lower end of the estimate and $3,000,000 as the upper limit of the project estimate.
Project estimation is a process and it is likely that the estimate will undergo several iterations and development. As the project scope is understood and refined, the project estimation accuracy should also improve.
A project estimate in the planning phase may reduce form ±50% to ±30%. Prior to executing the project and providing sufficient project planning was conducted, the project estimate may be as accurate as ±10%.
It can be extremely challenging to estimate a project, as a project by definition is unique in nature, often a new product, service or business change. But there are several techniques available that can greatly improve the project estimation process and accuracy which include:
Project estimation requires a level of expert judgement, not only in the project itself but more importantly expert judgement of the business environment in which the project is being delivered.
It is typically the role of the project manager to provide this expert judgement in order to decide what business risks need to be managed and which project estimating technique is likely to achieve the best results. Some areas of consideration are:
Analogous estimates are a great technique for early project estimation providing there is sufficient historical data for which assumptions of similarity in size and complexity can be derived.
For example, the project may be to implement a CRM system into an 80 person national company. Knowledge of past projects of similar complexity have taken 5 months to complete for a 40 person company.
With this information you might infer that the complexity is similar but the scale of the project is double and an Analogous project estimation would suggest this could take 10 months.
As with most project estimation techniques, each have their own advantages and limitations, some key considerations for Analogous project estimating are:
Parametric project estimation is similar to analogous estimating but provides an increased level of accuracy due to the statistical nature of the estimating technique. This estimating technique is often based on average known rates, such as square meterage for construction or software lines of code for software projects etc.
For example if a typical residential house usually costs around $1,000 per square meter, a 400 square meter house can be estimated to cost around $400,000.
Estimating a software project that is expected to have around 20,000 lines of code and the cost per line of code is $3. We can estimate that the project is likely to cost $60,000.
This project estimation technique is highly dependent on the quality of the data source and the knowledge of the project specifics, some key considerations are:
Bottom-up project estimation breaks down and estimates each component of a project. Each key portion or work package is split and broken down to greater levels of detail. The individual costs of each work package is then totalled to form the full bottom-up project estimate.
The bottom-up estimate takes the longest amount of time to prepare, but providing sufficient component detail is calculated this project estimation technique can provide the highest level of accuracy. Some considerations are:
The three-point estimate is one of my favourite project estimation techniques because it can not only greatly increase the project estimates, but it’s approach also makes it easier for other experts to provide input.
The three-point estimate, also known as the PERT technique, provides a range of project estimates and calculates the weighted average of that range. In order to use the PERT project estimation technique, we provide 3 data points, the “best case”, “most likely case” and the “worst case”:
This technique works great for several reasons.
I will generally ask experts to first provide their worst case estimate and then the best case estimate. Once these 2 points are agreed, It is easier for them to determine the most likely case knowing their upper and lower estimates.
Once these 3 points of data are captured, the formula (O+4L+P)/6 can be applied to calculate the weighted average estimate.
If we go back to our lines of code estimate above a three-point PERT estimate might look something like this:
We can see that buy using the PERT technique in our project estimation we now have a weighted average software lines of code, which should be more accurate than our initial estimate of 20,000 lines of code.
Depending on the level of certainty, the weightings of the average can be adjusted to suit.
Download the PERT estimating template
If there is a specific element of the project (or all of the project) to be outsourced and procuring an external vendor to deliver the project on your behalf, a simple and effective way in determining project estimates is to have these external suppliers conduct it on your behalf.
This will likely be through a competitive bidding process, where multiple vendors will provide a proposal including a fixed price and required time frames for completion.
Once all of the vendor bids have been returned, an evaluation can be made on each bid in order to determine the range of costs associated with each solution, taking into account any quality assumptions and documented exclusions.
Key aspects to remember in vendor bid analysis project estimation are:
Finally, once the project estimation has been completed and the project has a defined budget, it is important to provide for the level of “uncertainty”.
As with any estimate, it is just that, an estimate. It should not be expected to be 100% accurate and only required to be as accurate as the rough order of magnitude that was used, i.e. ±15% for the known components.
An estimate will inevitably include some element of uncertainty and due to the uniqueness of a project, will carry certain risks. The project estimation process should account for this uncertainty.
Uncertainty is often managed with a “contingency” budget, contingency is used where there is 20% of uncertainty surrounding the scope, a reasonable estimate may be to allow 20% contingency for the grey areas.
No single project estimation technique will suit all projects and for best results I suggest using and combining all or many of these estimating techniques to provide increased accuracy to your project estimates.
I like to take it one step further and use a three-point (PERT) estimate for all project estimation techniques, applying a PERT weighted average for everything! This is another key reason the three-point is my favourite project estimation technique.
Don’t forget to follow us and share these articles using the social link below ↓
Join tons of other people who receive exclusive updates every time I release new information...
I'm "Chris O". I've managed hundreds of millions of dollars worth of projects since the inception of my career. I love helping others figure out the intricacies of project management on any scale. Come find me on twitter or google+
Chris, you are so right. If we don’t strive to be as professional and accurate in our estimating then things will quickly fall a part. We are also setting the project up to a false start, with incorrect expectations as to what can be achieved with what funding…
Nice article. the estimation process is very important especially to win or lose bids. thanks again
Mufid, Thanks for your feedback, sound estimation is very important under a competitive bid process. I have covered some tender winning tips that you might be interested on other blogs on this site.
I liked the three point weighted average technique at least for projects in initial stages. Get the inputs from 2 experts and then average it out. thanks. Seshagiri
Seshagirl, yes the technique works really well. The more experts you can get to provide input on the 3 point estimates, the more accurate the weighted average will be.
These are tools an techniques described in the PMBOK Guide no ?
Centrino, Some of these are described in PmBoK yes. PMBoK is the Project Management Body Of Knowledge and the widest used tool for project management.
I would like to download your Free Three-Point Estimate Template but I can not look how to do, can you help me, please?
Best regards, Poul-Erik Nielsen Denmark
Hi Poul, To gain access to the project estimating technique, then visit the blog article and click on the Google +1 and a download link should appear.
Hi Chris,
Shouldn’t the formula in the 3 point estimation technique be like this – (O+4L+P)/6 ?
If we go with O+4L+P/6, in your example we will not get 24167 as the Weighted Average Estimate.
Hi Manu,
You are 100% correct, the correct formula is (O+4L+P)/6 – I have updated the post for accuracy. Thanks for the feedback.
Yet another great posting Chris…many thanks.
Can’t seem to access the estimating template above though.
Cheers RickC
Hi Rick, I have emailed you the template.
Could you please send the template to me also?
Nice article, i will try to 3 point estimation technique in my project. However I am not able to see/download template. Did you removed template?
Thanks Raghu, it should still be there, you just need to put your email address in.
Can the 3 point estimating process be used for infrastructure upgrade related projects or is it suited for just software/ application development projects? Is this a good technique to come up with a good level1 or level2 estimate early in the project? What is the key to being successful at this? Thanks.
Hi Rick,
Absolutely it can – the 3 point estimate is a much more accurate way to estimate for project costs and time. It is suitable for both level 1 and level 2 estimates, just the level of detail changes.
Keys to success are averaging out estimates from a number of independent experienced people and benchmark your estimate against similar projects or tasks.
Be sure to grab my estimating guide and template from this page.
This is very helpful post for me while studying software project management subject in engineering Thank You….
The explanation in detail is very useful for aspiring PM’s and people alike. Thank you for the article.
Thanks a lot for such a detailed explanation. I never focused on “Three Point Analysis” before. I am sure I will be using the same in my next project management. Thanks a lot again.
Great article, “Three Point Analysis” looks very interesting technique. I was not able to download the template.
Can you share the Template with me?
I liked the article so much … good work :)
Thanks Sherif :)
Very good article with lot of intresting information
Hi, nice article. but no templates yet
i just finish reading and will like to lean more. am sadick
I can understand the intellectual appeal of a 3-point estimate — however, as a practical matter a PM who gets such an estimate and is faced with planning with dependencies is generally going to take the worst of the three estimates rather than planning around a weighted “most likely”. I think the greater value of the 3-point estimate may be in inherently identifying areas of risk to the project. If I get an estimate of 12-14-23 man-days for a piece of work, that alone tells me there’s some significant risks involved that I need to factor in explicitly into other areas of my plan.
I read this post fully regarding the comparison of most recent and preceding technologies, it’s remarkable article.
Great beat ! I would like to apprentice at the same time as you amend your web site, how could i subscribe for a weblog website? The account aided me a applicable deal.
I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided shiny transparent idea.
I delight in, result in I discovered just what I used to be taking a look for. You have ended my 4 day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day. Bye
Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Many thanks, However I am going through troubles with your RSS. I don’t know the reason why I am unable to subscribe to it. Is there anybody having similar RSS issues? Anyone who knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanks!!
Do you mind if I quote a few of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your website? My blog is in the exact same niche as yours and my visitors would genuinely benefit from some of the information you present here.
Please let me know if this alright with you. Many thanks!
“Weak” and “miserable” are the terminologies often utilized to describe addicts. Perhaps you’ve started thinking about NASCAR and therefore are seeking some ways to get into it. It’s important that you have a truck load of patience when performing information marketing using online community sites.
I have been exploring for a bit for any high quality articles or blog posts on this sort of area . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this web site. Studying this information So i am satisfied to express that I have a very good uncanny feeling I came upon exactly what I needed. I so much no doubt will make certain to do not overlook this website and provides it a glance regularly.
I have checked your site and i have found some duplicate content, that’s why you don’t rank high in google, but there is a tool that can help you to create 100% unique content, search for: boorfe’s tips unlimited content
I see you don’t monetize your page, don’t waste your traffic, you can earn additional bucks every month because you’ve got hi quality content. If you want to know how to make extra bucks, search for: Ercannou’s essential adsense alternative
Hello very cool site!! Man .. Beautiful .. Amazing .. I’ll bookmark your blog and take the feeds also? I am happy to find numerous useful info here in the put up, we want develop more techniques in this regard, thank you for sharing.
. . . . .
This design is spectacular! You certainly know how to keep a reader entertained. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Wonderful job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool!
I have noticed you don’t monetize your blog, don’t waste your traffic, you can earn additional bucks every month. You can use the best adsense alternative for any type of website (they approve all websites), for more details simply search in gooogle: boorfe’s tips monetize your website
After all, as far as online dating services is worried, the Internet continues to be a virtual world, and some everyone is not shy about lying along with other people. Men can join an internet dating site with many few corresponding fees and often for free.
When Lena started dating, her son Paul, who was simply the youngest one, registered himself towards the same dating site.
I am regular reader, how are you everybody? This paragraph posted at this website is genuinely pleasant.
Good day
I Will Provide 20.000 Backlinks From Blog Comments for strikingprojectmanagement.com, By post 400k blog comments from where you will receive at least 20.000 live links.
– Use unlimited URLs – Use unlimited keywords (anchor text) – All languages supported – Link report included
Boost your Google ranking, get more traffic and more sales!
IF YOU ARE INTERESTED CONTACT US => [email protected]
Are you trying to find powerful advertising that has no per click costs and will get you new customers fast? I apologize for sending you this message on your contact form but actually that was the whole point. We can send your promotional copy to websites via their contact forms just like you’re reading this ad right now. You can specify targets by keyword or just go with mass blasts to websites in the location of your choice. So let’s say you want to blast a message to all the real estate agents in the United States, we’ll grab websites for only those and post your ad text to them. As long as you’re advertising some kind of offer that’s relevant to that niche then you’ll receive an awesome result!
Write a quickie email to [email protected] to get details about how we do this
Hello, I was just visiting your website and filled out your contact form. The “contact us” page on your site sends you these messages to your email account which is the reason you’re reading through my message at this moment correct? This is the most important accomplishment with any kind of online ad, making people actually READ your message and that’s exactly what I just accomplished with you! If you have an ad message you would like to blast out to tons of websites via their contact forms in the US or anywhere in the world send me a quick note now, I can even target particular niches and my costs are super low. Reply here: [email protected]
Ιf үou wish for tⲟo improve yօur knowledge оnly keeр visiting tһis site and Ьe updated ѡith thе mߋst reсent news posted hеre.
makasi bangg
Yay google is my king helped me to find this outstanding website!
I am truly thankful to the holder of this web site who has shared this wonderful piece of writing at here.
FOLDING TOURIST FISHING Seat FOR FISH
First off I want to say awesome blog! I had a quick question in which I’d like to ask if you do not mind. I was interested to find out how you center yourself and clear your thoughts before writing. I’ve had trouble clearing my mind in getting my ideas out. I truly do enjoy writing but it just seems like the first 10 to 15 minutes are generally wasted just trying to figure out how to begin. Any ideas or tips? Thanks!
For anybody who like to enjoy gambling of course, if you are looking for partners inside gambling activities, Mabosbet is the right choice. Mabosbetransfer You can contact the customer care and make purchases with us. Mabosbet livechat is available 24 hrs nonstop and is ready to serve you and help you online with wagering.
Mabosbet. com as a new responsible gambling agent, we always provide an alternative link to mabosbet in order that members feel comfortable. You no longer need to have trouble finding an alternate Jababbet link with regard to access, it is currently available for you.
All of us also always give concern to the safety regarding our members, very strict protecting each of the privacy of members of Jababbet.
Trustworthy Mabosbet From 2010
With good praise, the service from the Headquarters is no doubt. Friendly, quickly response, under 3 moments.
Mabosbet is highly appreciated by gambling bettors coming from Indonesia because whatever victory you get will probably be approved by mabosvip. We usually want to provide the great for members with maximum service.
The site mabosmail. com can also be very an easy task to access, when you only require internet access and alternate links mabosvip, no need to use proxies, notifications, or troublesome applications.
Of which is why many folks join mabosbola and create deposits, then, win the match. The best in addition to quality alternative mabosbola option site.
Come join mabosbet. com the trusted on-line gambling agent in Dalam negri. Contact livechat mabosbet today in the lower proper corner to get the user ID. Welcome to be able to the club.
MABOSBET will be a Trusted Online Gambling Site that has recently been established for more than 9 years with typically the biggest number of online gambling players. This gambling internet site also provides the most complete online gambling game with the most popular gambling providers in Indonesia. Online Gambling Games that can be played at MABOSBET are Sportsbook Soccer Gambling, Live Casino, On-line poker Card Gambling, Online Slot Betting and Online Togel. Mabosbet itself has provided many different excellent facilities for gambling online players in Indonesia ranging from 24-hour Live Chat Support, Bonuses with the simplest conditions, additional wins for True Gambling Players.
This particular MABOSBET Gambling Site furthermore proves to become very reliable, while this Gambling Internet site can also pay regarding any winning player without deductions. So you may play gambling comfortably and safely without fear of having to pay. In addition to the definite win at MABOSBET, you will also provide additional bonuses to provide a different experience actively playing online gambling.
JOBI BALL OFFICIAL SBOBET ONLINE INSIDE INDONESIA Online Soccer Wagering has become a really popular internet gambling game within Indonesia where every game has a market with regard to betting. MABOSBET is now a great official partner of BOLA TANGKAS Indonesia, where more compared to 7 years has provided soccer gambling games for wagering players in Indonesia. This SBOBET Soccer Gambling Industry allows a fair where players will actually be provided the live market through the recognized match directly. Therefore you will certainly be very lucky to be able to play SBOBET in this specific MABOSBET.
RELIABLE ONLINE SLOT MACHINE GAME SITE SITE WITH MANY INCOME Online slot gambling is currently popular in Philippines, where online slots are extremely successful with huge jackpots and freespins that usually are an easy task to win. Because of that this MABOSBET first provided Online Slot Video games from 2012 for gambling players in Indonesia. Where Jackpot is provided even more than USD $ one, 000, 000 for slot machine players who register at MABOSBET. The Slot Game machine at MABOSBET does not just use your Balance, the Slot Game provides been made with the FREESPIN Bonus that comes out there more often, so you will probably be Fortunately.
gratifying and thank you for visiting online casino agents for Indonesia. Here we are here to offer permission for fans of sbobet casino who desire to belong to the international agent site Promosbobet.
The products offered are categorically diverse and are no question the best choice. Derived from providers that have credibility and have been proven to have the best predicate in serving their customers. Providers considering Sbobet, Maxbet and many more.
As the best online casino and soccer gambling site in Indonesia. We give maximum advance next customer preserve that works online 24 full hours every day. suitably members can be in whenever and wherever without fearing to position the possibility of difficulties or confusion.
You actually make it appear really easy along with your presentation but I in finding this matter to be actually one thing that I believe I’d never understand. It sort of feels too complicated and extremely vast for me. I’m looking forward on your subsequent put up, I will try to get the cling of it!
Have you ever thought about publishing an e-book or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog based on the same topics you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my audience would value your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e mail.
Ubobet is an internationally trusted gambling dealer back 2001 until now. By holding ascribed admission for online gambling sites that come up with the money for various types of betting games. Games open adjoin Sportsbook, live Casino and Cockfight. Ubobet has reached the entire world gambling push including the Indonesian market. At present, every daylight there are more than 100 thousand players who entrust their bets in the city of Ubobet.
Ubobet List Site
To register an account, players cannot pull off it directly on the Ubobet site. In new words, prospective players must register through the credited agent site for Ubobet listings such as Pandora188. By using Pandora188 ID the performer can bet upon this city. How to register is quite easy, just by filling out the registration form correctly. After that make a lump of at least 25 thousand, subsequently the artiste can bet on Ubobet.
all performer who joins as a enthusiast at Pandora188 is entitled to a freebet supplementary and then a daily enlargement bonus without exception.
Ubobet Login
After registering, players can log in on Ubobet in two ways. The first is through ascribed partners who have collaborations such as Pandora188. Because the two sites have already formed a partnership, which means that betting upon the Pandora188 site is the similar as betting upon Ubobet directly. Or by the second showing off you can directly log in to the Ubobet site if you already have an account. How to log in Ubobet is quite easy, just enter your ID & password correctly.
Panduanjudi Login
Panduanjudi is a trusted and attributed poker site from PKV games server. We find the money for 9 types of complex games that can be played using just one ID. The games we allow insert poker, domino99, bandarq, aduq, sakong, bandar66 and afterward capsa susun. In complement to having a large variety of games, http://www.Panduanjudi.com furthermore has several handsome promos that can be enjoyed directly after visceral registered as a member. following given weekly cashback promos that are calculated from the sum turnover, both winning and losing. besides Panduanjudi really appreciate if there are members who invite contacts or relatives to accomplishment on our site by giving a referral other of 10% to 20% of the number of turnover downline invited to play.
To be the best poker site, Panduanjudi is always frustrating to improve our services to be competent to offer the best experience in playing poker at our place. One of the ways is the Gambling lead provides a means of payment that reaches every elements of Indonesian society. By full of life in the same way as leading banks and compliant Simpati and XL financial credit deposits. As well as which players can create deposits using E-wallets such as GoPay, OVO and Funds. extra than those mentioned above, of course there are still advantages in Panduanjudi to suffer to become the best poker sites such as:
Most Trusted Online Gambling Site in Indonesia in 2021
Nowadays playing online gambling is no stranger to the Indonesian people. Because most of these games are played by adults to parents. Playing online gambling is no question easy nowadays. Especially subsequently the presence of increasingly superior smartphones, the presence of various leading online gambling sites in Indonesia is growing. One of the newest and most trusted online gambling sites at this times is Sakura188 agent. Here you will locate various privileges in the manner of you perform on this site. The reason is this site offers various advantages in its services. In serving increase payments Sakura 188 agents themselves have various payment methods such as payment via bank transfer or via further payment merchants such as via ovo, linkaja, fund or gopay. This payment method is fairly practical and can make it easy for players if they desire to produce an effect at Sakura188.
In addition, at Agent Sakura 188 there is an online gambling game that is utterly popular and can be played via smartphone or PC. The games in Sakura188 have various types. therefore that this website has lots of well-known and easy-to-win games for any player. correspondingly it’s not wrong if this online gambling site is arguably unquestionably trusted. Even even if it’s new, the number of online gambling games that you can measure is next entirely diverse. Here are several kinds of games that you can perform on the sakura188 site.
Comment Policy: Feel free to say what you wish, bicker with other people, and even use a curse word or two when it's appropriate... But, use more than one link, and we'll have to delete your comment.
[…] This often leads to projects being under funded from a project management cost perspective and ultimately disbanded halfway during the project. Here is a guide for general project estimating. […]
[…] When trying to estimate project budget, I find it useful to ask a few experts in the area for the Best Case, Worst Case and Most Likely Case estimates, I then put all these in a spreadsheet and user the following formula to produce a weighted average (BC+MLC*4+WC)/6 where BC= Best Case, MLC= Most Likely Case and WC= Worst Case. A detailed estimating guide can be found here for further information. […]
[…] This article first appeared on our Striking Project Management Blog […]
Name *
Email *
Website
YES!!! I want to subscribe to The SPM Mailing List & get my FREE project management book
I believe the key for small businesses to smash their competition is through effective Project Management.
Through this website, I will provide project management tips & tricks that will put your business ahead of your competition.